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Fuel price signals and analytics
Fuel Stress Score
80
Elevated stress. Market conditions warrant caution.
Higher than 86% of historical weeks
Gasoline prices are volatile but directionless, at historically high levels, highly synchronized nationwide.
U.S. Regular Gasoline Retail Prices • Monday, March 30, 2026
Elevated stress suggests increased market uncertainty; consider scenario planning.
Market State
Regime
volatile
4 weeks in regime
Shape
linear trend up
81% confident
Coherence
100%
Regions moving in lockstep
Strong upward trend detected (R²=81%); prices rising 11.65¢/week.
Position vs History
Percentile (10y)
95%
Historically expensive
Z-Score (5y)
+1.39
Within 1.5σ
Time Above $4.00
9%
Currently $0.01 below
Recent Motion
Spot Price
$3.990
1W Change
+0.029
4W Change
+0.975
Volatility (12w)
0.0362
In 3 similar historical periods, prices rose in the following month.
Current stress is approaching peak levels seen in historical data.
Jan 2011 → Mar 2011
Prices rose significantly
94% match
+28¢ / 4w
Jan 2002 → Apr 2002
Prices remained stable
90% match
+2¢ / 4w
Dec 2012 → Feb 2013
Prices fell significantly
89% match
-10¢ / 4w
Advanced Analytics
Given this regime, historically...
In volatile + high coherence regimes (n=3):
4 weeks
67%
higher
8 weeks
—
Est.
12 weeks
67%
higher
Historically unfavorable. In similar conditions, prices more often rose than fell over the following month.
This week's increase is most consistent with price spike detected, possible unexpected move, and possible unstable regime.
Significant upward price movement detected (0.3σ)
Price moved 1.9σ from expected, indicating market surprise
Market in volatile regime, prices less predictable
Price at 95th percentile vs 10-year history
Stability Score
37%
Transition Risk
elevatedRegime stability is weakening. Elevated probability of transition within 4-6 weeks.
West Coast
+134¢ vs national
Early Movers (Leading National)
Regions are moving in sync. No significant divergence signals.
30-Day Correlation
100%
Strength
strongDiesel
Volatile
Gasoline
Volatile
Diesel has been leading gasoline by ~1 week. Watch diesel for early directional signals.
Data Range
11 yrs
2016–2026
Typical High
Apr
$3.10 avg
Typical Low
Dec
$2.72 avg
vs Seasonal Avg
+28.7%
Week 14
Gasoline prices typically peak around Apr ($3.10) and bottom in Dec ($2.72). Current price is 28.7% above the seasonal average for week 14.
Signals are internally consistent.
Notable upward price movement
Rare event (top 5% historically)
Mar 23
0.2σ
Notable upward price movement
Rare event (top 5% historically)
Mar 16
0.2σ
Notable upward price movement
Rare event (top 5% historically)
Mar 9
0.5σ
σ = standard deviations from expected weekly change
100%
Top 10% of historical weeks