Historical Analogs
Pattern matching against historical price movements
Configuration
What are analogs?
Analogs find historical periods where price patterns looked similar to today. By studying what happened after those periods, we can contextualize current conditions and understand historical precedents—not predict, but inform.
Green = prices fell (good)Red = prices rose (bad for costs)
Diesel(6 series)
U.S. No 2 Diesel Retail Prices
national • US
Mixed outcomes
82% match
Best match: May 2015
Prices fell significantly
2May 2001
+4.4%82%
3Mar 2018
+1.4%77%
4w outcome:-0.055
12w:-0.299
East Coast No 2 Diesel Retail Prices
padd • PADD1
Mixed outcomes
81% match
Best match: Oct 1998
Prices remained stable
2Apr 2016
+12.7%80%
3Sep 2001
-8.7%79%
4w outcome:-0.003
12w:-0.063
Midwest No 2 Diesel Retail Prices
padd • PADD2
Historically rose
80% match
Best match: Apr 2009
Prices remained stable
2Jul 2020
-0.8%76%
3Aug 2012
+22.1%76%
4w outcome:+0.004
12w:+0.346
Gulf Coast No 2 Diesel Retail Prices
padd • PADD3
Historically rose
82% match
Best match: May 2015
Prices remained stable
2Apr 2016
+15.4%81%
3Aug 2017
+23.1%76%
4w outcome:-0.048
12w:-0.325
Rocky Mountain No 2 Diesel Retail Prices
padd • PADD4
Mixed outcomes
88% match
Best match: Sep 2001
Prices fell significantly
2Aug 2004
+4.1%84%
3May 2015
-3.1%79%
4w outcome:-0.071
12w:-0.331
West Coast No 2 Diesel Retail Prices
padd • PADD5
Mixed outcomes
89% match
Best match: Apr 2016
Prices rose significantly
2May 2015
-6.1%79%
3Mar 1995
+4.5%76%
4w outcome:+0.164
12w:+0.396
Gasoline(6 series)
U.S. Regular Gasoline Retail Prices
national • US
Mixed outcomes
86% match
Best match: Sep 2000
Prices remained stable
2Mar 2014
-2.5%84%
3Aug 1991
-2.7%82%
4w outcome:-0.023
12w:-0.113
East Coast Regular Gasoline Retail Prices
padd • PADD1
Mixed outcomes
86% match
Best match: Feb 2008
Prices remained stable
2Jan 2001
-0.3%84%
3Aug 2011
-14.3%81%
4w outcome:+0.046
12w:+0.159
Midwest Regular Gasoline Retail Prices
padd • PADD2
Mixed outcomes
71% match
Best match: Feb 1993
Prices remained stable
2Jan 2017
-7.9%71%
3Feb 2022
-3.2%69%
4w outcome:-0.001
12w:+0.040
Gulf Coast Regular Gasoline Retail Prices
padd • PADD3
Mixed outcomes
77% match
Best match: Feb 2008
Prices remained stable
2Jun 2000
+7.1%76%
3Mar 2014
-2.8%76%
4w outcome:+0.027
12w:+0.145
Rocky Mountain Regular Gasoline Retail Prices
padd • PADD4
Historically rose
90% match
Best match: Feb 2008
Prices remained stable
2Feb 2011
+49.2%82%
3Feb 2022
+4.8%81%
4w outcome:+0.034
12w:+0.314
West Coast Regular Gasoline Retail Prices
padd • PADD5
Historically rose
84% match
Best match: Jul 2005
Prices rose significantly
2Mar 2016
+2.6%81%
3Jul 1999
+3.2%80%
4w outcome:+0.173
12w:+0.436