Historical Analogs
Pattern matching against historical price movements
Configuration
What are analogs?
Analogs find historical periods where price patterns looked similar to today. By studying what happened after those periods, we can contextualize current conditions and understand historical precedents—not predict, but inform.
Green = prices fell (good)Red = prices rose (bad for costs)
Diesel(6 series)
U.S. No 2 Diesel Retail Prices
national • US
Mixed outcomes
76% match
Best match: Nov 1997
Prices remained stable
2Apr 2010
+10.7%76%
3Jan 2013
+4.1%74%
4w outcome:-0.016
12w:-0.099
East Coast No 2 Diesel Retail Prices
padd • PADD1
Historically rose
82% match
Best match: Jan 2013
Prices rose significantly
2Apr 2016
+10.1%78%
3Apr 2010
+9.5%73%
4w outcome:+0.120
12w:+0.144
Midwest No 2 Diesel Retail Prices
padd • PADD2
Historically rose
80% match
Best match: Jul 2005
Prices remained stable
2Mar 2025
+121.7%75%
3Apr 2010
+10.7%75%
4w outcome:-0.048
12w:+0.699
Gulf Coast No 2 Diesel Retail Prices
padd • PADD3
Historically rose
85% match
Best match: May 2001
Prices remained stable
2Apr 2010
+10.5%85%
3Jul 2005
+15.0%79%
4w outcome:+0.017
12w:-0.101
Rocky Mountain No 2 Diesel Retail Prices
padd • PADD4
Historically rose
83% match
Best match: May 2009
Prices rose significantly
2Apr 2016
+13.5%82%
3Sep 2010
+0.3%79%
4w outcome:+0.081
12w:+0.278
West Coast No 2 Diesel Retail Prices
padd • PADD5
Historically rose
84% match
Best match: May 1998
Prices remained stable
2Apr 2016
+16.1%79%
3Mar 2007
+14.3%74%
4w outcome:-0.048
12w:-0.070
Gasoline(6 series)
U.S. Regular Gasoline Retail Prices
national • US
Historically fell
81% match
Best match: Sep 2016
Prices remained stable
2Jun 2013
+1.3%68%
3Nov 2022
-40.6%66%
4w outcome:+0.019
12w:+0.040
East Coast Regular Gasoline Retail Prices
padd • PADD1
Mixed outcomes
70% match
Best match: Dec 1994
Prices remained stable
2Feb 2000
-5.8%70%
3Sep 2009
-12.6%69%
4w outcome:-0.023
12w:-0.042
Midwest Regular Gasoline Retail Prices
padd • PADD2
Historically rose
69% match
Best match: Jan 2002
Prices rose significantly
2Feb 2022
+7.4%67%
3Jan 2005
-7.4%67%
4w outcome:+0.227
12w:+0.034
Gulf Coast Regular Gasoline Retail Prices
padd • PADD3
Historically rose
79% match
Best match: Feb 2000
Prices fell significantly
2Feb 2001
+12.1%67%
3Feb 2004
+25.5%62%
4w outcome:-0.062
12w:+0.186
Rocky Mountain Regular Gasoline Retail Prices
padd • PADD4
Mixed outcomes
77% match
Best match: Apr 2016
Prices rose significantly
2Feb 2022
-3.5%73%
3Feb 2022
-19.5%71%
4w outcome:+0.213
12w:+0.304
West Coast Regular Gasoline Retail Prices
padd • PADD5
Historically rose
74% match
Best match: Feb 2001
Prices rose significantly
2Feb 2011
+52.7%73%
3Dec 2006
+1.3%71%
4w outcome:+0.143
12w:+0.299