Historical Analogs
Pattern matching against historical price movements
Configuration
What are analogs?
Analogs find historical periods where price patterns looked similar to today. By studying what happened after those periods, we can contextualize current conditions and understand historical precedents—not predict, but inform.
Green = prices fell (good)Red = prices rose (bad for costs)
Diesel(6 series)
U.S. No 2 Diesel Retail Prices
national • US
Mixed outcomes
76% match
Best match: Nov 2000
Prices remained stable
2Dec 1996
-2.9%74%
3Mar 2000
-2.3%73%
4w outcome:+0.012
12w:-0.071
East Coast No 2 Diesel Retail Prices
padd • PADD1
Historically rose
83% match
Best match: Mar 2000
Prices remained stable
2May 2021
+12.6%74%
3Dec 2021
+10.8%72%
4w outcome:-0.024
12w:-0.024
Midwest No 2 Diesel Retail Prices
padd • PADD2
Historically fell
77% match
Best match: Sep 2013
Prices fell significantly
2Oct 2005
-75.8%76%
3Aug 1994
-1.6%75%
4w outcome:-0.076
12w:-0.077
Gulf Coast No 2 Diesel Retail Prices
padd • PADD3
Mixed outcomes
74% match
Best match: Nov 2000
Prices remained stable
2Jan 2007
-2.7%64%
3Jun 2007
+1.7%64%
4w outcome:+0.022
12w:-0.048
Rocky Mountain No 2 Diesel Retail Prices
padd • PADD4
Mixed outcomes
79% match
Best match: Nov 1994
Prices remained stable
2May 2022
+22.4%78%
3Sep 2013
-6.2%78%
4w outcome:-0.035
12w:-0.109
West Coast No 2 Diesel Retail Prices
padd • PADD5
Mixed outcomes
86% match
Best match: Nov 1998
Prices remained stable
2Jul 2018
-2.7%82%
3Nov 1996
-4.2%81%
4w outcome:-0.043
12w:-0.060
Gasoline(6 series)
U.S. Regular Gasoline Retail Prices
national • US
Historically rose
84% match
Best match: May 2016
Prices rose significantly
2Mar 2003
+6.2%83%
3Mar 2004
+7.0%82%
4w outcome:+0.157
12w:-0.092
East Coast Regular Gasoline Retail Prices
padd • PADD1
Mixed outcomes
83% match
Best match: Apr 2024
Prices rose significantly
2Mar 2004
+3.7%82%
3May 2016
+9.2%81%
4w outcome:+0.158
12w:-0.002
Midwest Regular Gasoline Retail Prices
padd • PADD2
Historically fell
82% match
Best match: Aug 1994
Prices fell significantly
2Feb 2002
-2.6%80%
3Jun 1995
-4.0%80%
4w outcome:-0.054
12w:-0.092
Gulf Coast Regular Gasoline Retail Prices
padd • PADD3
Mixed outcomes
79% match
Best match: Mar 2004
Prices rose significantly
2May 2016
+14.8%76%
3May 2010
-13.5%74%
4w outcome:+0.071
12w:+0.253
Rocky Mountain Regular Gasoline Retail Prices
padd • PADD4
Mixed outcomes
86% match
Best match: Nov 2019
Prices fell significantly
2Feb 2024
+2.4%85%
3Apr 2009
+17.5%84%
4w outcome:-0.135
12w:-0.352
West Coast Regular Gasoline Retail Prices
padd • PADD5
Mixed outcomes
84% match
Best match: May 2017
Prices rose significantly
2Sep 2020
-5.7%84%
3May 2016
+6.2%84%
4w outcome:+0.079
12w:-0.030