Historical Analogs
Pattern matching against historical price movements
Configuration
What are analogs?
Analogs find historical periods where price patterns looked similar to today. By studying what happened after those periods, we can contextualize current conditions and understand historical precedents—not predict, but inform.
Green = prices fell (good)Red = prices rose (bad for costs)
Diesel(6 series)
U.S. No 2 Diesel Retail Prices
national • US
Mixed outcomes
87% match
Best match: Mar 2011
Prices rose significantly
2May 2006
-0.2%84%
3Oct 2018
-9.4%84%
4w outcome:+0.166
12w:+0.018
East Coast No 2 Diesel Retail Prices
padd • PADD1
Historically fell
84% match
Best match: Oct 2018
Prices fell significantly
2Feb 1999
-3.5%82%
3Mar 2023
-6.8%82%
4w outcome:-0.069
12w:-0.309
Midwest No 2 Diesel Retail Prices
padd • PADD2
Mixed outcomes
86% match
Best match: Mar 2011
Prices rose significantly
2Jun 2018
-5.3%85%
3Apr 2002
+0.9%84%
4w outcome:+0.178
12w:+0.021
Gulf Coast No 2 Diesel Retail Prices
padd • PADD3
Historically rose
82% match
Best match: Mar 2011
Prices rose significantly
2May 2006
+1.9%82%
3Apr 2008
+19.0%81%
4w outcome:+0.167
12w:+0.039
Rocky Mountain No 2 Diesel Retail Prices
padd • PADD4
Historically fell
89% match
Best match: May 2004
Prices remained stable
2Mar 2021
-6.6%88%
3Nov 2007
-25.9%88%
4w outcome:-0.007
12w:-0.105
West Coast No 2 Diesel Retail Prices
padd • PADD5
Mixed outcomes
89% match
Best match: Mar 2011
Prices rose significantly
2Mar 2012
-8.8%88%
3May 2006
-5.8%88%
4w outcome:+0.150
12w:+0.001
Gasoline(6 series)
U.S. Regular Gasoline Retail Prices
national • US
Historically rose
81% match
Best match: Mar 2011
Prices rose significantly
2May 2021
+6.4%80%
3Oct 2002
-6.4%79%
4w outcome:+0.282
12w:+0.151
East Coast Regular Gasoline Retail Prices
padd • PADD1
Historically fell
80% match
Best match: Aug 2023
Prices fell significantly
2May 2017
-4.6%78%
3Nov 2004
-7.4%76%
4w outcome:-0.074
12w:-0.516
Midwest Regular Gasoline Retail Prices
padd • PADD2
Mixed outcomes
71% match
Best match: Sep 2017
Prices fell significantly
2Oct 2002
-15.6%71%
3Mar 2011
+33.0%69%
4w outcome:-0.071
12w:-0.075
Gulf Coast Regular Gasoline Retail Prices
padd • PADD3
Historically rose
80% match
Best match: Mar 2022
Prices fell significantly
2Feb 2003
+3.5%79%
3Apr 2009
+24.6%79%
4w outcome:-0.092
12w:+0.727
Rocky Mountain Regular Gasoline Retail Prices
padd • PADD4
Historically fell
81% match
Best match: Aug 2015
Prices fell significantly
2Jun 2018
-2.7%80%
3Jun 2004
-10.3%77%
4w outcome:-0.060
12w:-0.526
West Coast Regular Gasoline Retail Prices
padd • PADD5
Historically rose
91% match
Best match: Jun 2009
Prices fell significantly
2Mar 2017
+3.4%91%
3Mar 2011
+22.4%91%
4w outcome:-0.164
12w:+0.109