Historical Analogs
Pattern matching against historical price movements
Configuration
What are analogs?
Analogs find historical periods where price patterns looked similar to today. By studying what happened after those periods, we can contextualize current conditions and understand historical precedents—not predict, but inform.
Green = prices fell (good)Red = prices rose (bad for costs)
Diesel(6 series)
U.S. No 2 Diesel Retail Prices
national • US
Historically rose
88% match
Best match: Aug 2022
Prices rose significantly
2Oct 2006
+0.0%88%
3Jun 1998
-1.4%85%
4w outcome:+0.122
12w:+0.422
East Coast No 2 Diesel Retail Prices
padd • PADD1
Historically fell
92% match
Best match: Aug 2022
Prices remained stable
2Dec 1998
+0.3%91%
3Nov 2008
-39.0%91%
4w outcome:-0.004
12w:+0.363
Midwest No 2 Diesel Retail Prices
padd • PADD2
Historically rose
85% match
Best match: Aug 2022
Prices rose significantly
2Jan 2025
+23.8%81%
3Dec 2018
-19.7%80%
4w outcome:+0.213
12w:+0.479
Gulf Coast No 2 Diesel Retail Prices
padd • PADD3
Mixed outcomes
90% match
Best match: Dec 2022
Prices rose significantly
2Oct 2006
+0.3%89%
3Jan 2014
-20.3%87%
4w outcome:+0.156
12w:-0.234
Rocky Mountain No 2 Diesel Retail Prices
padd • PADD4
Mixed outcomes
91% match
Best match: Dec 1996
Prices remained stable
2Aug 2022
-0.2%90%
3Jul 2001
+1.4%88%
4w outcome:-0.020
12w:-0.052
West Coast No 2 Diesel Retail Prices
padd • PADD5
Historically fell
90% match
Best match: Dec 2014
Prices fell significantly
2Dec 2015
-15.3%88%
3Dec 1996
+0.3%88%
4w outcome:-0.327
12w:-0.268
Gasoline(6 series)
U.S. Regular Gasoline Retail Prices
national • US
Mixed outcomes
86% match
Best match: Aug 2000
Prices rose significantly
2Jul 1991
+3.3%85%
3Oct 2001
-10.8%85%
4w outcome:+0.114
12w:+0.079
East Coast Regular Gasoline Retail Prices
padd • PADD1
Mixed outcomes
86% match
Best match: Oct 1997
Prices remained stable
2Aug 2000
+4.6%85%
3Jun 2011
+13.7%83%
4w outcome:-0.030
12w:-0.098
Midwest Regular Gasoline Retail Prices
padd • PADD2
Mixed outcomes
82% match
Best match: Oct 1994
Prices remained stable
2Oct 2001
-6.7%80%
3Oct 1997
-2.0%79%
4w outcome:+0.005
12w:-0.077
Gulf Coast Regular Gasoline Retail Prices
padd • PADD3
Historically fell
86% match
Best match: Aug 2000
Prices remained stable
2Aug 2022
-30.6%84%
3Sep 2019
+4.6%83%
4w outcome:+0.047
12w:+0.004
Rocky Mountain Regular Gasoline Retail Prices
padd • PADD4
Historically fell
82% match
Best match: Jul 2011
Prices remained stable
2Jul 2019
-8.3%80%
3Jan 2019
-11.6%80%
4w outcome:+0.033
12w:+0.057
West Coast Regular Gasoline Retail Prices
padd • PADD5
Historically fell
90% match
Best match: Jul 2019
Prices fell significantly
2Dec 2018
-15.9%90%
3Aug 2022
-25.8%89%
4w outcome:-0.080
12w:-0.049