Historical Analogs
Pattern matching against historical price movements
Configuration
What are analogs?
Analogs find historical periods where price patterns looked similar to today. By studying what happened after those periods, we can contextualize current conditions and understand historical precedents—not predict, but inform.
Green = prices fell (good)Red = prices rose (bad for costs)
Diesel(6 series)
U.S. No 2 Diesel Retail Prices
national • US
Mixed outcomes
82% match
Best match: Apr 2015
Prices rose significantly
2Nov 2005
-5.1%72%
3Dec 1994
-0.9%72%
4w outcome:+0.124
12w:+0.078
East Coast No 2 Diesel Retail Prices
padd • PADD1
Mixed outcomes
82% match
Best match: Apr 2015
Prices rose significantly
2Oct 2013
-4.9%77%
3Sep 1997
+3.4%73%
4w outcome:+0.081
12w:+0.022
Midwest No 2 Diesel Retail Prices
padd • PADD2
Historically rose
88% match
Best match: Aug 2022
Prices rose significantly
2Jul 2001
-3.9%77%
3Nov 2016
+13.3%74%
4w outcome:+0.064
12w:+0.261
Gulf Coast No 2 Diesel Retail Prices
padd • PADD3
Mixed outcomes
76% match
Best match: Aug 2024
Prices fell significantly
2Mar 2000
-4.7%71%
3Jul 2001
-5.6%70%
4w outcome:-0.181
12w:-0.187
Rocky Mountain No 2 Diesel Retail Prices
padd • PADD4
Historically fell
80% match
Best match: Dec 2022
Prices remained stable
2Nov 2005
-18.1%76%
3Oct 2013
-3.9%75%
4w outcome:-0.009
12w:-0.395
West Coast No 2 Diesel Retail Prices
padd • PADD5
Historically fell
82% match
Best match: May 2024
Prices fell significantly
2Oct 2014
-10.9%81%
3Feb 1995
-0.5%81%
4w outcome:-0.078
12w:-0.186
Gasoline(6 series)
U.S. Regular Gasoline Retail Prices
national • US
Mixed outcomes
82% match
Best match: Dec 1992
Prices remained stable
2Feb 1998
+11.0%80%
3Oct 2013
-16.0%78%
4w outcome:-0.024
12w:-0.047
East Coast Regular Gasoline Retail Prices
padd • PADD1
Historically fell
76% match
Best match: Dec 1992
Prices remained stable
2Sep 2010
+7.5%73%
3Oct 2008
-82.4%71%
4w outcome:-0.021
12w:-0.054
Midwest Regular Gasoline Retail Prices
padd • PADD2
Historically rose
75% match
Best match: Nov 2016
Prices rose significantly
2Dec 1992
-2.9%71%
3Feb 2015
+29.7%70%
4w outcome:+0.168
12w:+0.187
Gulf Coast Regular Gasoline Retail Prices
padd • PADD3
Historically rose
71% match
Best match: Mar 1993
Prices remained stable
2Dec 2017
+11.2%65%
3Nov 2011
-5.6%64%
4w outcome:+0.034
12w:+0.061
Rocky Mountain Regular Gasoline Retail Prices
padd • PADD4
Mixed outcomes
91% match
Best match: Dec 1998
Prices remained stable
2Apr 2020
-15.7%91%
3Jul 2012
-8.6%90%
4w outcome:+0.001
12w:+0.075
West Coast Regular Gasoline Retail Prices
padd • PADD5
Historically fell
87% match
Best match: Nov 2008
Prices fell significantly
2Nov 2008
-70.5%87%
3Nov 2005
-20.1%87%
4w outcome:-0.768
12w:-0.683