Historical Analogs
Pattern matching against historical price movements
Configuration
What are analogs?
Analogs find historical periods where price patterns looked similar to today. By studying what happened after those periods, we can contextualize current conditions and understand historical precedents—not predict, but inform.
Green = prices fell (good)Red = prices rose (bad for costs)
Diesel(6 series)
U.S. No 2 Diesel Retail Prices
national • US
Mixed outcomes
90% match
Best match: Aug 2023
Prices rose significantly
2Nov 2021
-5.6%89%
3Mar 2005
+4.0%89%
4w outcome:+0.111
12w:-0.266
East Coast No 2 Diesel Retail Prices
padd • PADD1
Mixed outcomes
90% match
Best match: Aug 2023
Prices remained stable
2Jan 2017
-5.5%89%
3Mar 2013
-6.1%89%
4w outcome:+0.050
12w:-0.320
Midwest No 2 Diesel Retail Prices
padd • PADD2
Historically rose
89% match
Best match: Apr 2022
Prices rose significantly
2Aug 2023
+5.4%89%
3Nov 2021
-9.7%88%
4w outcome:+0.382
12w:+0.820
Gulf Coast No 2 Diesel Retail Prices
padd • PADD3
Mixed outcomes
89% match
Best match: Aug 2023
Prices rose significantly
2Apr 2005
-3.1%88%
3Apr 2002
-0.9%88%
4w outcome:+0.112
12w:-0.328
Rocky Mountain No 2 Diesel Retail Prices
padd • PADD4
Mixed outcomes
93% match
Best match: May 2006
Prices remained stable
2Aug 2021
-3.8%93%
3Apr 2002
+0.0%92%
4w outcome:-0.033
12w:+0.134
West Coast No 2 Diesel Retail Prices
padd • PADD5
Mixed outcomes
93% match
Best match: Nov 2021
Prices remained stable
2Aug 2023
+38.5%91%
3May 2019
-0.5%91%
4w outcome:+0.045
12w:+0.173
Gasoline(6 series)
U.S. Regular Gasoline Retail Prices
national • US
Mixed outcomes
94% match
Best match: Mar 2011
Prices rose significantly
2Mar 2012
-11.4%93%
3Nov 2021
-6.9%93%
4w outcome:+0.283
12w:+0.056
East Coast Regular Gasoline Retail Prices
padd • PADD1
Mixed outcomes
91% match
Best match: Mar 2011
Prices rose significantly
2Apr 2002
-1.1%90%
3Apr 2002
+0.6%89%
4w outcome:+0.289
12w:+0.099
Midwest Regular Gasoline Retail Prices
padd • PADD2
Mixed outcomes
91% match
Best match: Mar 2011
Prices rose significantly
2Mar 2012
-11.2%87%
3Mar 2012
-12.5%87%
4w outcome:+0.351
12w:+0.066
Gulf Coast Regular Gasoline Retail Prices
padd • PADD3
Mixed outcomes
93% match
Best match: Mar 2011
Prices rose significantly
2Apr 2002
-0.9%91%
3Jul 1994
+5.4%89%
4w outcome:+0.263
12w:+0.048
Rocky Mountain Regular Gasoline Retail Prices
padd • PADD4
Mixed outcomes
91% match
Best match: Mar 2002
Prices remained stable
2Apr 2002
-0.7%90%
3Apr 2012
+3.9%89%
4w outcome:+0.001
12w:-0.151
West Coast Regular Gasoline Retail Prices
padd • PADD5
Historically fell
94% match
Best match: May 1996
Prices remained stable
2Mar 2002
-7.4%91%
3Jun 2008
-21.1%91%
4w outcome:-0.023
12w:-0.108