Explore
Fuel price signals and analytics
Fuel Stress Score
76
Elevated stress. Market conditions warrant caution.
Higher than 82% of historical weeks
Diesel prices are volatile but directionless, at historically high levels, highly synchronized nationwide.
U.S. No 2 Diesel Retail Prices • Monday, October 5, 2026
Elevated stress suggests increased market uncertainty; consider scenario planning.
Market State
Regime
volatile
15 weeks in regime
Shape
linear trend up
87% confident
Coherence
100%
Regions moving in lockstep
Strong upward trend detected (R²=87%); prices rising 12.67¢/week.
Position vs History
Percentile (10y)
99%
Historically expensive
Z-Score (5y)
+2.61
Outside normal
Time Above $4.00
47%
Currently above threshold
Recent Motion
Spot Price
$6.199
1W Change
-0.183
4W Change
+0.232
Volatility (12w)
0.1435
In 3 similar historical periods, prices stayed flat in the following month, averaging -8¢ over 12 weeks.
Current stress is approaching peak levels seen in historical data.
Jan 2011 → Mar 2011
Prices rose significantly
87% match
+17¢ / 4w
Feb 2006 → May 2006
Prices remained stable
84% match
-0¢ / 4w
Aug 2018 → Oct 2018
Prices fell significantly
84% match
-9¢ / 4w
Advanced Analytics
Given this regime, historically...
In volatile + high coherence regimes (n=3):
4 weeks
33%
lower
8 weeks
—
Est.
12 weeks
67%
higher
Historically favorable. In similar conditions, prices more often fell than rose over the following month.
This week's decline is most consistent with possible price spike detected, possible unexpected move, and possible unstable regime.
Significant upward price movement detected (0.2σ)
Price moved 2.1σ from expected, indicating market surprise
Market in volatile regime, prices less predictable
Price at 99th percentile vs 10-year history
Stability Score
52%
Transition Risk
moderateRegime is moderately stable but showing some stress signals. Monitor for changes.
West Coast
+103¢ vs national
Regions are moving in sync. No significant divergence signals.
30-Day Correlation
100%
Strength
strongDiesel
Volatile
Gasoline
Rising
Both fuels moving in sync. National or international factors likely driving prices.
Data Range
11 yrs
2016–2026
Typical High
Sep
$3.83 avg
Typical Low
Dec
$3.33 avg
vs Seasonal Avg
+63.6%
Week 41
Diesel prices typically peak around Sep ($3.83) and bottom in Dec ($3.33). Current price is 63.6% above the seasonal average for week 41.
Signals are internally consistent.
Notable upward price movement
Elevated volatility detected
Sep 21
0.2σ
σ = standard deviations from expected weekly change
100%
Top 10% of historical weeks