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Fuel price signals and analytics
Fuel Stress Score
76
Elevated stress. Market conditions warrant caution.
Higher than 83% of historical weeks
Diesel prices are trending upward, at historically high levels, highly synchronized nationwide.
U.S. No 2 Diesel Retail Prices • Monday, May 25, 2026
Elevated stress suggests increased market uncertainty; consider scenario planning.
Market State
Regime
rising
1 week in regime
Shape
drift
Pattern emerging
Coherence
100%
Regions moving in lockstep
No dominant price pattern detected; mixed signals in recent weeks.
Position vs History
Percentile (10y)
97%
Historically expensive
Z-Score (5y)
+2.08
Outside normal
Time Above $4.00
40%
Currently above threshold
Recent Motion
Spot Price
$5.523
1W Change
-0.073
4W Change
+0.172
Volatility (12w)
0.0602
In 3 similar historical periods, prices fell in the following month, averaging -6¢ over 12 weeks.
Current stress is approaching peak levels seen in historical data.
Aug 2000 → Nov 2000
Prices remained stable
76% match
+1¢ / 4w
Sep 1996 → Dec 1996
Prices remained stable
74% match
-3¢ / 4w
Jan 2000 → Mar 2000
Prices remained stable
73% match
-2¢ / 4w
Advanced Analytics
Given this regime, historically...
In rising + high coherence regimes (n=3):
4 weeks
33%
lower
8 weeks
—
Est.
12 weeks
0%
lower
Historically favorable. In similar conditions, prices more often fell than rose over the following month.
This week's decline is most consistent with unexpected move, price spike detected, and upward trend.
Price moved 3.5σ from expected, indicating market surprise
Significant upward price movement detected (0.3σ)
Sustained rising trend influencing current prices
Market volatility has decreased, prices stabilizing
Stability Score
73%
Transition Risk
lowCurrent regime appears stable. Low probability of near-term transition.
West Coast
+98¢ vs national
Early Movers (Leading National)
Regions are moving in sync. No significant divergence signals.
30-Day Correlation
100%
Strength
strongDiesel
Rising
Gasoline
Volatile
Gasoline has been leading diesel by ~1 week. Watch gasoline for early directional signals.
Data Range
11 yrs
2016–2026
Typical High
May
$3.70 avg
Typical Low
Dec
$3.33 avg
vs Seasonal Avg
+49.9%
Week 22
Diesel prices typically peak around May ($3.70) and bottom in Dec ($3.33). Current price is 49.9% above the seasonal average for week 22.
Signals are internally consistent.
Market behavior shifted to a new pattern
Uncommon movement (top 15%)
May 25
Notable upward price movement
Rare event (top 5% historically)
May 4
0.3σ
σ = standard deviations from expected weekly change
100%
Top 10% of historical weeks