Explore
Fuel price signals and analytics
Fuel Stress Score
74
Elevated stress. Market conditions warrant caution.
Higher than 80% of historical weeks
Diesel prices are volatile but directionless, at historically high levels, highly synchronized nationwide.
U.S. No 2 Diesel Retail Prices • Monday, August 24, 2026
Elevated stress suggests increased market uncertainty; consider scenario planning.
Market State
Regime
volatile
9 weeks in regime
Shape
drift
Pattern emerging
Coherence
100%
Regions moving in lockstep
No dominant price pattern detected; mixed signals in recent weeks.
Position vs History
Percentile (10y)
99%
Historically expensive
Z-Score (5y)
+2.10
Outside normal
Time Above $4.00
45%
Currently above threshold
Recent Motion
Spot Price
$5.652
1W Change
+0.198
4W Change
+0.339
Volatility (12w)
0.3148
In 3 similar historical periods, prices rose in the following month.
Current stress is below peak levels seen in historical data.
Aug 1997 → Nov 1997
Prices remained stable
76% match
-2¢ / 4w
Jan 2010 → Apr 2010
Prices rose significantly
76% match
+11¢ / 4w
Oct 2013 → Jan 2014
Prices remained stable
74% match
+4¢ / 4w
Advanced Analytics
Given this regime, historically...
In volatile + high coherence regimes (n=3):
4 weeks
67%
higher
8 weeks
—
Est.
12 weeks
33%
lower
Historically unfavorable. In similar conditions, prices more often rose than fell over the following month.
This week's increase is most consistent with volatility shift, possible unstable regime, and historical high.
Market volatility has increased, adding uncertainty to prices
Market in volatile regime, prices less predictable
Price at 99th percentile vs 10-year history
Stability Score
41%
Transition Risk
elevatedRegime stability is weakening. Elevated probability of transition within 4-6 weeks.
PADD1
-15¢ vs national
Regions are moving in sync. No significant divergence signals.
30-Day Correlation
100%
Strength
strongDiesel
Volatile
Gasoline
Stable
Diesel has been leading gasoline by ~1 week. Watch diesel for early directional signals.
Data Range
11 yrs
2016–2026
Typical High
May
$3.70 avg
Typical Low
Dec
$3.33 avg
vs Seasonal Avg
+52.9%
Week 35
Diesel prices typically peak around May ($3.70) and bottom in Dec ($3.33). Current price is 52.9% above the seasonal average for week 35.
Some signals are uncertain; interpret with context.
All Clear
No abnormal price shocks in the last 4 weeks.
Market volatility is within normal bounds.
100%
Top 10% of historical weeks