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Fuel price signals and analytics
Fuel Stress Score
55
Moderate stress. Some volatility present.
Higher than 87% of historical weeks
Diesel prices are stable and calm, above historical average, highly synchronized nationwide.
U.S. No 2 Diesel Retail Prices • Monday, February 16, 2026
Stable regimes favor fixed-price strategies and budget predictability.
Market State
Regime
stable
8 weeks in regime
Shape
drift
Pattern emerging
Coherence
100%
Regions moving in lockstep
No dominant price pattern detected; mixed signals in recent weeks.
Position vs History
Percentile (10y)
69%
Normal range
Z-Score (5y)
-0.45
Within 1.5σ
Time Above $4.00
35%
Currently $0.29 below
Recent Motion
Spot Price
$3.711
1W Change
+0.023
4W Change
+0.181
Volatility (12w)
0.0499
In 3 similar historical periods, prices stayed flat in the following month, averaging -12¢ over 12 weeks.
Current stress is approaching peak levels seen in historical data.
Mar 2015 → May 2015
Prices fell significantly
82% match
-6¢ / 4w
Feb 2001 → May 2001
Prices remained stable
82% match
+4¢ / 4w
Dec 2018 → Mar 2019
Prices remained stable
77% match
+1¢ / 4w
Advanced Analytics
Given this regime, historically...
In stable + high coherence regimes (n=3):
4 weeks
67%
higher
8 weeks
—
Est.
12 weeks
33%
lower
Historically unfavorable. In similar conditions, prices more often rose than fell over the following month.
This week's increase is most consistent with volatility shift.
Market volatility has increased, adding uncertainty to prices
Stability Score
88%
Transition Risk
lowCurrent regime appears stable. Low probability of near-term transition.
Rocky Mountain
-10¢ vs national
Early Movers (Leading National)
Regions are moving in sync. No significant divergence signals.
30-Day Correlation
100%
Strength
strongDiesel
Stable
Gasoline
Stable
Diesel has been leading gasoline by ~1 week. Watch diesel for early directional signals.
Data Range
11 yrs
2016–2026
Typical High
Jan
$3.50 avg
Typical Low
Mar
$3.33 avg
vs Seasonal Avg
+8.3%
Week 8
Diesel prices typically peak around Jan ($3.50) and bottom in Mar ($3.33). Current price is 8.3% above the seasonal average for week 8.
Signals are internally consistent.
All Clear
No abnormal price shocks in the last 4 weeks.
Market volatility is within normal bounds.
100%
Top 10% of historical weeks