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Fuel price signals and analytics
Fuel Stress Score
66
Elevated stress. Market conditions warrant caution.
Higher than 71% of historical weeks
Diesel prices are volatile but directionless, at historically high levels, highly synchronized nationwide.
U.S. No 2 Diesel Retail Prices • Monday, July 6, 2026
Elevated stress suggests increased market uncertainty; consider scenario planning.
Market State
Regime
volatile
2 weeks in regime
Shape
linear trend down
72% confident
Coherence
100%
Regions moving in lockstep
Strong downward trend detected (R²=72%); prices falling 8.78¢/week.
Position vs History
Percentile (10y)
87%
Historically expensive
Z-Score (5y)
+0.63
Within 1.5σ
Time Above $4.00
42%
Currently above threshold
Recent Motion
Spot Price
$4.578
1W Change
-0.090
4W Change
-0.632
Volatility (12w)
0.2749
In 3 similar historical periods, prices rose in the following month, averaging +16¢ over 12 weeks.
Current stress is below peak levels seen in historical data.
May 2022 → Aug 2022
Prices rose significantly
88% match
+12¢ / 4w
Jul 2006 → Oct 2006
Prices remained stable
88% match
+0¢ / 4w
Apr 1998 → Jun 1998
Prices remained stable
85% match
-1¢ / 4w
Advanced Analytics
Given this regime, historically...
In volatile + high coherence regimes (n=3):
4 weeks
33%
lower
8 weeks
—
Est.
12 weeks
67%
higher
Historically favorable. In similar conditions, prices more often fell than rose over the following month.
This week's decline is most consistent with possible volatility shift, possible unstable regime, and possible historical high.
Market volatility has decreased, prices stabilizing
Market in volatile regime, prices less predictable
Price at 87th percentile vs 10-year history
Stability Score
36%
Transition Risk
elevatedRegime stability is weakening. Elevated probability of transition within 4-6 weeks.
West Coast
+85¢ vs national
Regions are moving in sync. No significant divergence signals.
30-Day Correlation
100%
Strength
strongDiesel
Volatile
Gasoline
Volatile
Diesel has been leading gasoline by ~1 week. Watch diesel for early directional signals.
Data Range
11 yrs
2016–2026
Typical High
May
$3.70 avg
Typical Low
Dec
$3.33 avg
vs Seasonal Avg
+26.4%
Week 28
Diesel prices typically peak around May ($3.70) and bottom in Dec ($3.33). Current price is 26.4% above the seasonal average for week 28.
Signals are internally consistent.
Market behavior shifted to a new pattern
Uncommon movement (top 15%)
Jun 29
Market behavior shifted to a new pattern
Uncommon movement (top 15%)
Jun 22
σ = standard deviations from expected weekly change
100%
Top 10% of historical weeks