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Fuel price signals and analytics
Fuel Stress Score
74
Elevated stress. Market conditions warrant caution.
Higher than 80% of historical weeks
Diesel prices are volatile but directionless, at historically high levels, highly synchronized nationwide.
U.S. No 2 Diesel Retail Prices • Monday, April 6, 2026
Elevated stress suggests increased market uncertainty; consider scenario planning.
Market State
Regime
volatile
5 weeks in regime
Shape
linear trend up
87% confident
Coherence
100%
Regions moving in lockstep
Strong upward trend detected (R²=87%); prices rising 21.52¢/week.
Position vs History
Percentile (10y)
99%
Historically expensive
Z-Score (5y)
+2.44
Outside normal
Time Above $4.00
37%
Currently above threshold
Recent Motion
Spot Price
$5.643
1W Change
+0.242
4W Change
+0.784
Volatility (12w)
0.0656
In 3 similar historical periods, prices rose in the following month.
Current stress is below peak levels seen in historical data.
Jun 2023 → Aug 2023
Prices rose significantly
90% match
+11¢ / 4w
Aug 2021 → Nov 2021
Prices fell significantly
89% match
-6¢ / 4w
Jan 2005 → Mar 2005
Prices remained stable
89% match
+4¢ / 4w
Advanced Analytics
Given this regime, historically...
In volatile + high coherence regimes (n=3):
4 weeks
67%
higher
8 weeks
—
Est.
12 weeks
67%
higher
Historically unfavorable. In similar conditions, prices more often rose than fell over the following month.
This week's increase is most consistent with price spike detected, possible unstable regime, and historical high.
Significant upward price movement detected (0.3σ)
Market in volatile regime, prices less predictable
Price at 99th percentile vs 10-year history
Stability Score
55%
Transition Risk
moderateRegime is moderately stable but showing some stress signals. Monitor for changes.
West Coast
+128¢ vs national
Regions are moving in sync. No significant divergence signals.
30-Day Correlation
100%
Strength
strongDiesel
Volatile
Gasoline
Volatile
Both fuels moving in sync. National or international factors likely driving prices.
Data Range
11 yrs
2016–2026
Typical High
Apr
$3.70 avg
Typical Low
Apr
$3.33 avg
vs Seasonal Avg
+52.5%
Week 15
Diesel prices typically peak around Apr ($3.70) and bottom in Apr ($3.33). Current price is 52.5% above the seasonal average for week 15.
Signals are internally consistent.
Notable upward price movement
Rare event (top 5% historically)
Apr 6
0.2σ
Notable upward price movement
Rare event (top 5% historically)
Mar 23
0.3σ
Notable upward price movement
Rare event (top 5% historically)
Mar 16
0.2σ
σ = standard deviations from expected weekly change
100%
Top 10% of historical weeks