Events
Market shocks and regime changes
2
Price Shocks
0
Regime Changes
1
High Severity
Understanding Events
Price Spike
Sudden price increase — often signals supply disruption
Price Drop
Sudden price decrease — may signal demand shift
Regime Change
Market shifted behavior (volatile → stable, etc.)
Δ = price change in $/gallonσ = how unusual (2σ = rare, 3σ = very rare)Severity: low = notable, med = significant, high = major