Explore
Fuel price signals and analytics
Fuel Stress Score
37
Low stress. Markets relatively calm.
Higher than 99% of historical weeks
Diesel prices are stable and calm, within historical norms, highly synchronized nationwide.
U.S. No 2 Diesel Retail Prices • Monday, December 22, 2025
Stable regimes favor fixed-price strategies and budget predictability.
Market State
Regime
stable
1 weeks
Shape
drift
50% conf
Coherence
100%
Typical: 65–85%
Mixed signals; no dominant pattern in recent data.
Position vs History
Percentile (10y)
61%
Normal range
Z-Score (5y)
+0.00
Within 1.5σ
Time Above $4.00
35%
Currently $0.46 below
Recent Motion
Spot Price
$3.544
1W Change
-0.063
4W Change
-0.287
Volatility (12w)
0.0312
In 3 similar historical periods, prices stayed flat in the following month.
Current stress is approaching peak levels seen in historical data.
Jan 2015 → Apr 2015
Prices rose significantly
82% match
+12¢ / 4w
Sep 2005 → Nov 2005
Prices fell significantly
72% match
-5¢ / 4w
Oct 1994 → Dec 1994
Prices remained stable
72% match
-1¢ / 4w
Signals are internally consistent.
Dec 22 • -0.1σ
100%
Top 10% of historical weeks